Abstract
Climate warming is often assessed through rising maximum temperatures, yet trends in minimum temperatures can have equally profound ecological impacts, especially in colder regions. This study primarily focuses on Michigan, while also incorporating data from Alaska, Washington, Maine, and Minnesota to examine long-term changes in minimum temperatures and their effects on cold-adapted wildlife. Minimum monthly temperature records from 1896 to 2025 were sourced from NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), and wildlife observation data—centered on species such as the Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) were analyzed. Our objective was to identify temporal patterns in minimum temperature increases and assess their potential correlation with shifts in species distribution. Statistical modeling and time-series analysis revealed a consistent upward trend in minimum winter temperatures across all studied regions. These warming trends align with observed changes in animal populations, including range contractions of the lynx and altered behavior and survival rates in other cold-adapted species. Reduced snow cover persistence and milder winters appear to be reshaping ecological dynamics in these northern habitats. Our findings highlight the critical need to include minimum temperature data in climate-impact assessments and underscore the vulnerability of northern species to even subtle forms of warming. Ongoing monitoring and adaptive management strategies are essential for preserving ecological integrity in these changing environments.
Presenters
Wisam BukaitaAssistant Professor, Math and Computer Science, Lawrence Technological University, Michigan, United States
Details
Presentation Type
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session
Theme
2026 Special Focus—Unseen Unsustainability: Addressing Hidden Risks to Long-Term Wellbeing for All
KEYWORDS
Species distribution, Minimum temperatures, Climate warming
