Precipitation-based Climate Change Signals on Urban Tropical Rivers: Trend Analysis and Spatial Variability

Abstract

The deterioration of tropical river basin has gained increasing global attention due to the ongoing impacts of climate change. Although there are several weather stations in these basins, knowledge remains limited on precipitation variation over time and space, especially given climate change and local environmental shifts. Therefore, this study responds to this need by evaluating precipitation pattern, trend and spatial analysis on a small tropical river basin encompassing a total area of 139.103 km² to help guide future water management and climate adaptation efforts in the basin. Precipitation data (1931-1990 and 2007-2022) were obtained from two weather stations (A and B) located within the basin. The precipitation trends were detected using the Mann-Kendall test, and spatial variability was assessed using IDW. There were no trends in annual precipitation for either station (p > 0.05). The rate of precipitation change per year, with station A indicating (+5.30 mm) and B showing -20.43 mm per year. Monsoon seasonality indicated that the drought months for stations A and B were 176 and 23, while for the wet months, they were 90 for station A and 30 for station B. Spatial heterogeneity was highlighted with the downstream portion of the basin receiving 620.11 mm/month, the middle section receiving 2.65 mm/month, and the upstream area receiving 318.91 mm/month. Precipitation variation at A with alternating drought and wet years reflects natural climate variability. Stable, moderate precipitation at B in the 2000s suggests a shift possibly due to local land use changes and broader climate impacts.

Presenters

Julieth Joseph Balilemwa
Student, PhD, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Selangor, Malaysia

Details

Presentation Type

Paper Presentation in a Themed Session

Theme

Assessing Impacts in Diverse Ecosystems

KEYWORDS

IDW, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS, TROPICAL RIVER