Abstract
This study introduces REWIND, a novel Multi-Spatial Ecological Macroeconomics Integrated Assessment Model (MS-IAM) developed to explore the socio-economic impacts of climate change in Italy within the broader context of global sustainability transitions. Rooted in the EUROGREEN model (D’Alessandro et al., 2020, Nature Sustainability), REWIND employs a modular system dynamics framework that explicitly incorporates spatial heterogeneity. This design enables the analysis of how regional shocks propagate through interlinked supply chains and aggregate demand, in Italy. A key methodological contribution is the integration of a dynamic environmentally extended multi-regional input–output structure with region-specific household consumption, spatially heterogeneous climate damage functions, and a detailed labour market disaggregated by age, skill, and education, allowing for the assessment of employment and wage dynamics. The model also incorporates a government balance sheet to track fiscal sustainability under climate stress, and an explicit representation of international trade in both monetary and physical terms, including flows of raw materials and water. Together, these features provide a comprehensive framework to evaluate how climate-induced productivity shocks affect production, distribution, and welfare across scales. Simulations under RCP 6.0 for 2019–2050 reveal that neglecting spatial heterogeneity leads to systematic underestimation of aggregate climate damages. More broadly, REWIND shows how local disruptions can propagate internationally through trade and resource dependencies, highlighting the globalized nature of climate risks. The findings underscore the importance of multi-spatial modelling for designing policies that are sensitive to regional inequalities while addressing the interconnected socio-economic, technological, and ecological dimensions of sustainability transitions in a global context.
Presenters
Tiziano DistefanoAssociate Professor, Economics and Management, University of Florence, Florence, Italy
Details
Presentation Type
Paper Presentation in a Themed Session
Theme
KEYWORDS
Ecological Macroeconomics, Input-Output, International Supply Chain, Climate Change, Complex systems
