Modelling Hypersalinization in a Coastal Lagoon: Inlet Morphodynamics and Climate Change Implications in Navío Quebrado, Colombia

Abstract

Coastal lagoons are vital, yet highly vulnerable, transitional ecosystems. In Navío Quebrado Lagoon, Colombia, salinity is the primary driver of ecological structure, but it is increasingly threatened by hypersalinization due to climate change and local pressures. While previous modelling efforts in the region have focused on general hydrology, the specific processes governing salinity dynamics, particularly in response to the lagoon’s inlet morphology, remained understudied. This research addresses this gap by applying the EFDC+ Explorer numerical model to analyze seasonal and spatial salinity variations. The hydrodynamic model was configured using field data to simulate how changes in the lagoon’s inlet status, a key morphological feature, drive salinity concentrations. Results from the simulation clearly demonstrate that the opening and closing cycle of the inlet and evaporation are the dominant factors controlling the lagoon’s salinity regime. The model successfully reproduced the process of hypersalinization, showing that under closed-inlet conditions, the combination of high evaporation rates and restricted water exchange leads to a sharp increase in salinity. This study provides a critical modelling tool for understanding ecosystem vulnerability and developing effective management strategies for Navío Quebrado Lagoon, offering crucial insights for the conservation of similar coastal systems facing the dual threats of morphological change and a shifting climate.

Presenters

Franklin Torres Bejarano
Researcher, Environmental Engineering Department, Universidad de Cordoba, Colombia, Córdoba, Colombia

Details

Presentation Type

Paper Presentation in a Themed Session

Theme

Ecological Realities

KEYWORDS

Coastal lagoon, Salinity, Hypersalinization, Hydrodynamic models